The last political and economical trends in the region of the Middle East clearly show that complicated times are come for the Russian Federation. The reason is because China steadily squeezes Moscow from the region. The ambitious project of the Big Silk Road will not include Russia. Instead of that, Ukraine will play one of the biggest roles.
The secret negotiations between Russia and Japan over the disputed Kuril Islands triggered intensive debates in the Russian and Japanese mass-media. We predicted that Tokyo will not compromise its previous positions and remain firm in the issues of Kuril Islands. The Crimean problem will not be traded in. Putin should not have any high expectations that Tokyo will leave the sanctions against Russia.
Moldova is a key country as for the neighboring Ukraine as well as for Romania which has long historical ties with Kishinev. But Russia, even despite the absence of the common borders with Moldova, also considers this country as an instrument for making geopolitical troubles for the whole East Europe region in general, and for the EU in particular.
The relief of the international sanctions imposed on Iran, will affect in the mid-term the world oil and gas markets. As a result, the Russian old-style and non-modernized economy will suffer a lot and Putin’s regime will be ruined. At the same time, the European energy market and Ukraine are going to receive some concrete benefits.
The Geostrategy Group continues to analyze precisely the figures of the financial and technical assistance provided by the foreign countries to Ukraine since the Russian military aggression. The spending of a rather big amount of received international assistance is not only confirmed the importance of Ukraine for the West but also should be closely monitored by Ukrainian civil society for its better target oriented results.
The fragile internal situation in neighboring Belarus poses threats and challenges for Ukraine’s national security and stability. Upcoming presidential elections in Belarus are also making the official Minsk more vulnerable towards Russia’s political and economic pressure. How Ukraine should behave under those complicated political circumstances? And what Kyiv should expect from Belarus in its nearest future?
A serious of recent high-rank appointments in the Russian state institutions indicated that the Federal Security Service is steadily broadening its influence over the internal political processes in the country. It shows, from the one hand, that the FSB is confronting with Chechen President, and from the other - the FSB is becoming no-alternative player on Russia’s political map.
The public appearances of the two top Moscow officials - Russian president Putin and prime-minister Medvedev – confirmed the worries that Russian economy has been seriously affected by the sanctions imposed by the Western countries after the illegal annexation of Crimea and Russia’s military invasion on the Donbass.
One of the most stable countries in the region of the Central Asia – Turkmenistan – is now facing a number of serious challenges related to the possible social-political turbulences. One of the key factors is low global oil prices. Another factor is strictly connected to serious deterioration of the internal situation in Russia which is suffering from imposing sanctions against Moscow. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine triggered dangerous processes in the Central Asia as well.
The uncontrolled aggressive behaviour of the Moscow leader Vladimir Putin towards its neighbouring countries, particularly regarding Ukraine, provoked the global players to start thinking about the demontage of the current Russian political regime. It seems that those changes might be triggered by the two countries located in the Central Asia – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.