According to our estimations, the new 2015 will become very fragile as in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relations as well as in the global European context. Russia continues suffering from the sanctions imposed by the West, and therefore the Russian Government is expected to be substituted. Ukraine will have unique chance to make profound internal reforms in extremely difficult circumstances.
The large number of analytical materials that were published in mass-media and leading non-governmental organizations in foreign policy during latest November – December 2015, raised serious concerns regarding the perspective of the settlement crisis between Ukraine and Russia. According to them, there are still not reachable solutions of this complicated crisis and Russia will be suffered even more that Ukraine.
In Russian expert community a very fragile processes of finding possible compromises about the future of the Donbass and Crimea has been launched. This process indicates the desire of some Russian experts to stop the insanity that occurs in the Russian-Ukrainian relations. Three are some scenarios that are being discussed on the expert level. The deep-frozen conflict on Donbass seems the most visible at the current stage.
The Geostrategy Group recently communicated with a few very wealthy Russian families that have long been living in the European Union’s countries. These families have a joint Russian-European business, which began in late 1990 upset years. After talking emerged the feeling that the Russian middle class is moving from his usual state of comfort towards a panic.
The former State Secretary of the Unites States Henry Kissinger, who is one of the most inclinational foreign policy experts in the world, expressed on different occasions its opinions on recent developments about relations between Russia and the West. What does it mean for Ukrainian long-term national intestates? And how Russian behavior could affect the world’s future?
After the Euromaidan, when the political power in Ukraine had been dramatically changed, Russia started very aggressive behavior towards Ukrainians. Many nationalistic labels were applied towards Ukrainian power and average people. But what is the real internal situation in Russia regarding the intolerance towards other national minorities living in RF? The situation is very threatening.
The so-called “international observers”, who participated on November 02 in the so-called “elections” in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are fully associated with Russian lobbyists groups acting in the EU countries. The Geostrategy came to the conclusions that the Russian company Gazprom stands behind the financing of “international observer’s” participation in Eastern Ukraine illegal elections.
By the end of 2014 Ukraine will be 4 million tons short of coal. The deficit stems from the fact that 88 of the 93 Ukrainian mines operating in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which together account for 70% of domestic production, are located in areas controlled by the militants. What Ukraine should do in order to become less dependent on coal from Luhansk and Donetsk?
During the last weeks some things related to Russian president Putin and his close team occurred: first – the fatal crash of the privet jet belonged to the president of Total de Margerie in Moscow and second - rumors regarding unidentified submarine near Swedish coast. Does is mean that someone from Russian or West plans conspiracy against Putin?
Events that are taking place in the Eastern Ukraine are becoming for the European Union as a very important test on the geopolitical maturity, for the ability of the EU not only sounds, but also to be a real player in the European continent. If the EU is strong enough to resist the Russian pressure, Brussels would definitely confirm its ability to change the regime of Putin in the nearest future, making Russia more democratic and predictable partner.