The outcomes of the one-day working visit of the Russian president Vladimir Putin to New-York with a purpose of participating in the 70-th UN General Assemble showed the still weak position of Russia on the international arena. He tried to trade in Ukraine and Crimean crisis for the conflict in Syria, but he obviously failed. His meeting with the US president has also brought no expected results.
Immediately after the Parliamentary elections held in 2014, the new pro-Ukrainian and pro-West political party Samopomich gave a lot of optimism as for the Ukrainian electorate as well as for the USA and the EU countries. The reason was simple: the young Ukrainian politicians promised to implement the long-expected internal reforms without delays. But why Western countries have been disappointed with the behavior of Samopomich which did not support the comprehensive Constitutional reform?
The urgent problems with immigrants from the Middle East and Northern Africa countries appeared on the top political agenda of the European Union. The so-called “immigration challenge” has been widely discussed during the last Assembly of the European Parliament. The outcomes of these debates give the substantial grounds for saying that this new problem also affects Ukraine. How?
The last political and economical trends in the region of the Middle East clearly show that complicated times are come for the Russian Federation. The reason is because China steadily squeezes Moscow from the region. The ambitious project of the Big Silk Road will not include Russia. Instead of that, Ukraine will play one of the biggest roles.
The secret negotiations between Russia and Japan over the disputed Kuril Islands triggered intensive debates in the Russian and Japanese mass-media. We predicted that Tokyo will not compromise its previous positions and remain firm in the issues of Kuril Islands. The Crimean problem will not be traded in. Putin should not have any high expectations that Tokyo will leave the sanctions against Russia.
Moldova is a key country as for the neighboring Ukraine as well as for Romania which has long historical ties with Kishinev. But Russia, even despite the absence of the common borders with Moldova, also considers this country as an instrument for making geopolitical troubles for the whole East Europe region in general, and for the EU in particular.
The relief of the international sanctions imposed on Iran, will affect in the mid-term the world oil and gas markets. As a result, the Russian old-style and non-modernized economy will suffer a lot and Putin’s regime will be ruined. At the same time, the European energy market and Ukraine are going to receive some concrete benefits.
The Geostrategy Group continues to analyze precisely the figures of the financial and technical assistance provided by the foreign countries to Ukraine since the Russian military aggression. The spending of a rather big amount of received international assistance is not only confirmed the importance of Ukraine for the West but also should be closely monitored by Ukrainian civil society for its better target oriented results.
The fragile internal situation in neighboring Belarus poses threats and challenges for Ukraine’s national security and stability. Upcoming presidential elections in Belarus are also making the official Minsk more vulnerable towards Russia’s political and economic pressure. How Ukraine should behave under those complicated political circumstances? And what Kyiv should expect from Belarus in its nearest future?
A serious of recent high-rank appointments in the Russian state institutions indicated that the Federal Security Service is steadily broadening its influence over the internal political processes in the country. It shows, from the one hand, that the FSB is confronting with Chechen President, and from the other - the FSB is becoming no-alternative player on Russia’s political map.