The secret negotiations between Russia and Japan over the disputed Kuril Islands triggered intensive debates in the Russian and Japanese mass-media. We predicted that Tokyo will not compromise its previous positions and remain firm in the issues of Kuril Islands. The Crimean problem will not be traded in. Putin should not have any high expectations that Tokyo will leave the sanctions against Russia.
The upcoming Presidential elections in Belarus scheduled on November, 2015 are very important either for the Western countries or for Russia from different points of view, primarily because both geopolitical players are not interested in the new military clashes in the center of Europe. But Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity triggered some internal developments in neighboring Belarus.
Moldova is a key country as for the neighboring Ukraine as well as for Romania which has long historical ties with Kishinev. But Russia, even despite the absence of the common borders with Moldova, also considers this country as an instrument for making geopolitical troubles for the whole East Europe region in general, and for the EU in particular.
A serious of recent high-rank appointments in the Russian state institutions indicated that the Federal Security Service is steadily broadening its influence over the internal political processes in the country. It shows, from the one hand, that the FSB is confronting with Chechen President, and from the other - the FSB is becoming no-alternative player on Russia’s political map.
One of the most stable countries in the region of the Central Asia – Turkmenistan – is now facing a number of serious challenges related to the possible social-political turbulences. One of the key factors is low global oil prices. Another factor is strictly connected to serious deterioration of the internal situation in Russia which is suffering from imposing sanctions against Moscow. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine triggered dangerous processes in the Central Asia as well.
The uncontrolled aggressive behaviour of the Moscow leader Vladimir Putin towards its neighbouring countries, particularly regarding Ukraine, provoked the global players to start thinking about the demontage of the current Russian political regime. It seems that those changes might be triggered by the two countries located in the Central Asia – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Euromaidan events, occurred in 2014, and Russian military aggression against Crimean Peninsula and in the Donbas as consequences of those developments dramatically changed the political attitude of Azerbaijan towards Ukraine. The political approaches of Baku were also significantly changed towards the Russian Federation. What are the today’s political preferences which the official Baku is following?
The visit of the Russian President Putin to Hungary shows how deep this country, which is the full-fledged member of the European Union and the NATO, remains to be dependent on the Russia. It dependence, which primarily relates to energy and finance sectors, creates some threats for neighboring countries, including Ukraine.
The illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Russian Federation leaded to the situation when Odesa begins to play vitally important role for further Moscow’s political and military expansion over Ukraine. Multiple bombing attacks on the city occurred in 2014. But despite it Russia continues to lose Odesa as a platform for destabilizing situation in Ukraine.
In Russian expert community a very fragile processes of finding possible compromises about the future of the Donbass and Crimea has been launched. This process indicates the desire of some Russian experts to stop the insanity that occurs in the Russian-Ukrainian relations. Three are some scenarios that are being discussed on the expert level. The deep-frozen conflict on Donbass seems the most visible at the current stage.